GOP looking stong already

Democrats hoped to stave off a Republican sweep Tuesday of three off-year elections that could signal an early wave of discontent with the governing party's performance in Washington.
Polls closed at 7 p.m. in Virginia, where a hotly contested governor's race was too close to call at the top of the hour. Republican former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell was leading Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds in exit polling, according to television networks, and has been ahead in every public poll of the race since early summer.
The Virginia governor's race was only one of three elections that placed Republicans within striking distance of victory Tuesday night. The gubernatorial election in New Jersey and a special congressional election in upstateNew York also gave the GOP an opportunity to show strength at the polls an opportunity after President Obama's election last November.
The White House played down the importance of all three contests Tuesday, with spokesman Robert Gibbs urging reporters not to read the evening's returns as a referendum on the president and his party.
"I don't think, looking at the two gubernatorial races, you can draw with any great insight what's going to happen a year from now," Gibbs said.
Early exit polling reported by CNN Tuesday evening suggested voters were not intentionally trying to send message to the White House with their ballots: 55 percent of voters in Virginia and 60 percent of voters in New Jersey said their feelings toward the president did not weigh on their decision.
Among the remaining respondents, there was a close to even split between voters who said they were trying to support the president with their vote and those who were trying to rebuke him. In Virginia, 18 percent said they were trying to send the Obama administration a positive message, compared with 24 percent who said the opposite. In New Jersey, those numbers were 19 and 20 percent, respectively.
But if voters sounded ambivalent about the national implications of the race, national Democratic and Republican leaders were not. Leading figures from both parties have hit the campaign trail in recent days in all three key elections, including Vice President Biden, who stumped in New York 23rd congressional district for Democrat Bill Owens on Monday, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who appeared later in the day for Owens's opponent, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.
Thompson predicted Monday evening that a Hoffman win would "shake the foundations of Washington D.C." And speaking with POLITICO Tuesday, Hoffman painted his bid for Congress as the first stage of a national campaign to return Congress to conservative hands.
"Hopefully the Republican party, of which I’m a lifelong member, utilizes this energy and excitement of people coming to my support because we’ll need it in 2010," he said. "We’re just standing up for the core values that made America strong – less government, less taxes, less spending."
Hoffman has led in the most recent polling, with leads ranging from between five and 17 points, but Republican Dede Scozzafava's withdrawal from the election last weekend and subsequent endorsement of Owens has left the race a question mark.
On Sunday, President Barack Obama made the latest in a series of visits to New Jersey in support of incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, whose contest with Republican prosecutor Chris Christie has been within the margin of error for weeks. Christie, meanwhile, has called in high-profile Republicans including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
During his last campaign stop in Morris County Tuesday, Christie predicted a victory for his party in the Garden State and told volunteers at his local headquarters: "We're winning this thing."
In a nod to the tightness of his matchup with Corzine, Christie emphasized the importance of turnout and told supporters participation was "very good" across "areas of the state that we're going to do well in.
A third candidate, Chris Daggett, has injected a level of uncertainty into the New Jersey race by drawing off a number of disaffected independent voters, though his polling numbers have fallen from the teens into the mid-to-high single digits. Whether Daggett can hold on to his voters – or whether they break for either of the major party candidates – could decide the election.
CNN's early exit poll reported that the New Jersey race reflected a higher level of concern with local issue than the campaign in Virginia, with 26 percent of voters saying property taxes were the main issue on their minds and 20 percent expressing the gravest concern with the state's chronic political corruption.

National issues played a role in both contests, however. A plurality of voters in both states - 46 percent in Virginia and 31 percent in New Jersey - said the economy was the most important issue to them. And for voters in both gubernatorial contests, health care ranked high among the list of issues voters said they were thinking about, with 25 percent in Virginia and 18 percent in New Jersey calling it their top concern.
Republicans are watching Virginia not only for the governor's race, but also down-ballot statewide elections for lieutenant governor and attorney general that offer the GOP a credible opportunity to capture all the top offices in a state that has recently trended toward the Democrats – and which Obama won just one year ago.Republican attorney general candidate Ken Cuccinelli and incumbent Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling have consistently led their Democratic rivals, Steve Shannon and Jody Wagner.
Both Deeds and McDonnell were headed to the state capital in Richmond for election-night rallies with their supporters after a final day of campaigning. Virginia's polls close first tonight, at 7 p.m., with New Jersey following an hour later and New York an hour after that.
In a sign of Democratic anxiety going into today's vote, both Corzine and Deeds told television interviewers to disregard recent surveys that placed them behind their opponents.
"The only poll that counts is the one that's going on right now," Corzine said, deploying a familiar line Deeds also used.
Corzine voted Tuesday morning in Hoboken before heading out on a last swing that ends in East Brunswick for an election-night rally. Christie is gathering his supporters at the Parsippany Hilton to await the voters' decision.
In New York, Owens and Hoffman held competing events in Plattsburgh, one of the largely rural district's few population centers. Hoffman stopped at Plattsburgh City Hall for an event with Mayor Donald Kasprzak while Owens met with workers at the Clinton County Correctional facility and visited volunteers in the Plattsburgh field office.
"I certainly am confident in the election today. I think our message has gotten out, is resonating with people and we believe we are going to move forward," Owens told POLITICO after voting Tuesday morning.
Democratic officials in Owens's home base of Clinton County expressed concern Tuesday afternoon that turnout may not be keeping pace in the Democratic candidate's strongest areas.
Owens will spend the evening in Plattsburgh, addressing supporters at the American Legion there. Hoffman heads to Saranac Lake for an rally at the Hotel Saranac.

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